Modelos predictivos aplicados a la conservación de flora amenazadainvernaderos vs. linaria nigricans en el sureste árido ibérico

Abstract

Last 30 years, the expansion of greenhouses in Almería province has improved notably the economic and social panorama of this historically depressed region. This economic revolution has another side: an enormous demand of natural resources (mainly water supplies and construction surface) has altered the landscape dramatically. New appearance of seawater desalination plants in the coast is allowing an increase in the construction of greenhouses. Therefore, unique xerofitic grasslands habitats (considered of high-priority conservation for the Directive Habitats 92/43/CEE and some proposed as LIC and ZEPA) will continue being fragmented and destroyed. In some of these habitats inhabit Linaria nigricans Lange, (Scrophulariaceae, annual plant, protected by the Law 8/2003 of October the 28th of Andalusian Flora and Fauna), has been selected for the present study as key specie of habitats needed of additional protection in front of the expansion of greenhouses. The combined use of SIG and predictive distribution models (MaxEnt, GARP, ENFA, Bioclim and Domain), applied to greenhouses and key species, may allow to analize the status of the potential habitat of Linaria nigricans, and predict the habitat area endangered by greenhouses' expansion. The results, applied to territorial management can guide to solve spatial conflicts between economical development and conservation.