Evaluación de modelos climáticos globales del CMIP5 sobre el noroeste de América del Sur

Zusammenfassung

Objective: The purpose of this study was to validate and compare the performance of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in the area of northern South America. Methodology: The validation study is carried out for sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST), because of these are two of the most important global variables in describing the climate of Colombia. So, both variables are susceptible be used as predictors in statistical downscaling of precipitation in Colombia. To this end we compare the mean and variance fields of SLP and SST in different models of the CMIP5 with those obtained from the NCEP reanalysis data for the period 1950-2005. Furthermore, we have compared the main modes of variability derived from a Princi- pal Component Analysis (PCA). Results: The results show how the models reproduce reasonably well the mean fields of SLP and SST, although some models, such as CCSM4, tend to show more zonally SLP patterns, strengthening subtropical highs. Conclusions: For the PCA, all models reproduce the main variability modes associated with ENSO and tropical Atlantic reasonably well, while many of them tend to overestimate the variance associated with the first mode.