Simulation of global change impacts on Mediterranean pine forests: from knowledge- to process-based models

Résumé

The general aim of this thesis is to increase the understanding of pine plantation dynamics in southeastern Spain through the design and building of ecological models. Multiple ecological modelling approaches are applied in order to test di erent techniques, to experiment with them, and to promote their use in the study area, which constitutes the methodological objectives of this thesis. The di erent modelling techniques applied here study di erent compartments of pine plantations —the socio-ecological system, forest dynamics and defoliator dynamics—, which represent the ecological objectives of this thesis. The socio-ecological system is studied on a large scale taking into account the provinces of Granada and Almería. Forest dynamics are modelled on a medium scale by considering a 390,000 ha area covering the Protected Areas of Sierra Nevada, Sierra de Baza y Filabres and Sierra de Huétor. Finally, the population dynamics of the most common defoliator in these ecosystems are modelled on a local scale in a pine plot located in Sierra Nevada Protected Area.