Climate Change: Emission Reduction with Carbon Capture and Sequestration and a Clean Development Mechanism

Abstract

Climate change is a complex and protracted challenge that could have significant impacts on human society, the climate system and the world economy. Climate change is attributed to significant emissions of greenhouse gases, which are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). The two biggest anthropogenic contributors of CO2 to the atmosphere are the United States of America and China. From 1970 to 2019, China and the United States of America together produced 38% of the world’s total CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. Continuation of these significant emissions by the two countries alone could lead to the breach of climate change targets that have been set in the Paris Agreement and Glasgow Climate Pact. The aim is to limit global warming to 1.50C, 1.70C and 20C respectively (with respect to the temperatures before the preindustrial era). To meet the Paris and Glasgow climate targets the carbon budget set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is equal to 500 GtCO2, 850 GtCO2, and 1,350 GtCO2 respectively. As of January 2020, the world CO2 emissions from consumption of fossil fuels were 33.63 GtCO2, this is the business-as-usual scenario. Therefore, the annual estimated CO2 emission reduction targets for the world are 27.38 GtCO2, 23.04 GtCO2 and 16.76 GtCO2, respectively. In this thesis the two potential solutions proposed to achieve emission reduction targets of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are: carbon capture and sequestration and a clean development mechanism supported by emission trading. In this thesis the proposed CO2 emission reduction model is a carbon capture and sequestration approach, which estimates the potential of CO2 emission reduction in the United States of America and China that could take place by installing carbon capture and sequestration at coal-and gas-fired plants. The clean development mechanism assessment methodology is proposed to examine and verify the authenticity of emission reductions and effectiveness of emission trading. It is a methodology of project validation that focuses on additionality. In a business-as-usual scenario, the world emits 33.66 GtCO2 per year from coaland gas-fired power plants and industry. In this thesis the results show that the potential years of breach of world carbon budgets without carbon capture and sequestration installed in China and the United States of America is year 2034– 2035, year 2043–2044 and year 2055–2056 for 1.50C, 1.70C and 20C climate targets, respectively. The potential year of breach of carbon budgets with carbon capture and sequestration installed in China and the United States of America is the year 2045–2046, year 2057–2058 and year 2077–2078 for 1.50C, 1.70C and 20C climate targets, respectively. The technology analysis shows that carbon capture and sequestration has a degree of deliverability for the United States of America. The carbon capture and sequestration ambition in China is uncertain and difficult to accomplish. The claim that carbon capture and sequestration is an essential technology does not appear to be entirely correct, as there are many technological and financial constraints that limit its role in preventing climate change. The results of the clean development mechanism assessment methodology and emission trading show that it is possible to reduce greenhouse gases by using the clean development mechanism and emission trading. The results show that the clean development mechanism and emission trading have reduced emissions by 4.16 GtCO2e. The clean development mechanism assessment methodology used to review the registered clean development mechanism projects shows that the clean development mechanism is very effective in reducing powerful greenhouse gases. The electrification of the European Union’s road transport sector could reduce emissions by 0.23 Gt carbon per year by phasing out diesel and motor gasoline. The permanent solution to the climate crisis is the installation of renewable technology for energy generation, the deployment of sustainable low carbon agriculture and a phasing out of diesel and motor gasoline from road transport. Emission trading offers a unique opportunity to develop emission reduction technologies and to create a market for renewable technologies and carbon-based financial assets. The main conclusions of the thesis are: China and the United States of America, who are the biggest emission contributors must reduce their coal and gas-based emissions by moving their energy generation to renewables, the carbon capture and sequestration is a potential emission reduction technology and the clean development mechanism and emission trading could help in accomplishing climate targets. At the same time the installation of carbon capture and sequestration in China and the United States of America are not adequate to meet the climate change targets and expectations. The main barriers to carbon capture and sequestration delivery are due to the cost and technology uncertainty. The clean development mechanism and emission trading can reduce emissions, but these would need to be greater than 10 GtCO2e per year in order for emission trading to have any meaningful impact and lastly the European Union can make a big contribution by electrification of its road transportation sector by removing dependency on diesel and gasoline fossil fuels.