What are the main factors driving behind the MENA countries current account deficit? A panel logit approach analysis

  1. Mohammed Seghir 1
  2. Salah Eddine Sari Hassoun 2
  3. Jorge Chica-Olmo 3
  4. Mehmet Sarac 4
  1. 1 University of Mascara (Algeria)
  2. 2 University of Tlemcen (Algeria)
  3. 3 University of Granada (Spain)
  4. 4 Istanbul University (Turkey)
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Revista:
Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y la empresa

ISSN: 1886-516X

Año de publicación: 2022

Volumen: 33

Páginas: 134-153

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.46661/REVMETODOSCUANTECONEMPRESA.4473 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y la empresa

Resumen

El déficit sostenido de la cuenta corriente en cualquier país tiene una implicación importante para la política. Si continúa, sugiere que el régimen no debería tener motivación para evitar o disminuir su deuda internacional. En este artículo, probamos empíricamente la relación entre el déficit de cuenta corriente y las diferentes variables macroeconómicas mediante el modelo de panel Logit. Por lo tanto, nos centramos en los países MENA durante los años 1980-2017. Construimos un modelo econométrico para analizar la contribución del PIB real, la tasa de desempleo (UR), el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC), la tasa de crecimiento de las exportaciones (EGR), la tasa de crecimiento de las importaciones (IGR), el gasto público (PE) y la tasa de comercio exterior (FTR) sobre el déficit de cuenta corriente (CAD). Establecimos que solo las siguientes variables exógenas: PIB, UR, PE y FTR, tienen un efecto positivo y significativo en el déficit de cuenta corriente. Este resultado puede ayudar a los gobiernos a identificar el mejor momento para las estrategias de inversión y negocios al observar la evolución del desempeño de las industrias de mayor jerarquía temporal.

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